Strategic Instincts, by Dominic Johnson

Among political scientists, it's widely believed that ‘cognitive biases’ (that is, quirks of the human mind) are not only detrimental, but responsible for some of history’s worst policy blunders. Whether it’s the Bay of Pigs fiasco, Chernobyl, or the Global Financial Crisis, it’s easy to think of colossal disasters that back this up. But is …

Continue reading Strategic Instincts, by Dominic Johnson

The evolutionary logic of overconfidence

People in general are overconfident, excessively optimistic and think of themselves as superior to others. How can I say such a thing? Ask anyone with a license to rate their driving abilities, and most people will tell you that they are above average. However, this is not just an isolated case of cocky drivers. The …

Continue reading The evolutionary logic of overconfidence